Lime's Polls

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Comparing the candidates' tax plans

TED CRUZ
Turn 7 bracket tax system into a 10% flat tax and which expected to do the following:

Boost GDP by 13.9% above what is currently projected
Increase wages by 12.2%
Create 4,861,000 additional jobs.
https://www.tedcruz.org/issues/jobs-and-opportunity/

A family of 4 will pay no taxes on their first $36,000 of income
The plan exempts a large amount of initial income for low- and middle-income taxpayers, with a $10,000 standard deduction and $4,000 personal exemption

Enables Americans to save up to $25,000 annually tax-deferred in the Universal Savings Accounts (USA)

Capital investment would rise by 43.9%

The following taxes would be eliminated in the Cruz Simple Flat Tax:
    Death Tax.
    Overseas profits tax.
    The Alternative Minimum Tax.
    The Obamacare taxes.
https://www.tedcruz.org/tax_plan_summary/

JOHN KASICH
Work with Congress to pass a resolution amending the Constitution to require a balanced budget and submit it to the states for ratification. If Congress refuses, he'll work with the states to call a constitutional convention to craft an amendment that could be submitted to the states for ratification

1 year moratorium on all major, new regulations will give businesses a respite from the costs of Obama Administration regulations and allow time to overhaul the regulatory process

Call on Congress to make cost-benefit analyses mandatory for all new regulations to make sure their benefit outweighs their costs

John Kasich will approve the Keystone XL pipeline
https://www.johnkasich.com/resultsnow/

Eliminate federal estate(death) tax

Reduce the number of income tax brackets from 7 to 3 and reduce the top rate from 39.6% to 28%(which is the same rate it was when Ronald Reagon was President)
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/15/politics/john-kasich-budget-plan/

Balnce budget by 2025

Increase the Earned Income Tax Credit by 10%

Double the R&E tax credit for small businesses

Kasich's tax reform plan intends to raise $1 trillion of revenue through 2025
http://crfb.org/blogs/kasich-releases-plan-get-balance

Reduce capital gains and dividends tax from 23.8% to 15%

Lower corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%
https://www.atr.org/atr-analysis-john-kasich-tax-plan

DONALD TRUMP
The Trump plan phases out the tax exemption on life insurance interest for high-income earners

A one-time deemed repatriation of corporate cash held overseas at a significantly discounted 10% tax rate

Eliminate the death tax

The Trump plan eliminates the income tax for over 73 million households. 42 million households that currently file complex forms to determine they don’t owe any income taxes will now file a 1 page which will save them an average of $110 in preparation costs

Over 31 million households get the same simplification and keep on average nearly $1,000

This plan simplifies the tax code by taking nearly 50% of current filers off the income tax rolls entirely and reducing the number of tax brackets from 7 to 4 for everyone else

The following will pay 0% income taxes and 0% Long Term Cap Gains/ Dividends:
-Single filers earning $0-25,000
-Married filers earning $0-50,000
-Heads of Household earning $0-37,500

The following will pay 10% income taxes and 0% Long Term Cap Gains/ Dividends:
-Single filers earning $25,001-50,000
-Married filers earning $50,000-100,000
-Heads of Household earning $37,501-75,000

The following will pay 20% income taxes and 15% Long Term Cap Gains/ -Dividends:
-Single filers earning $50,001-150,000
-Married filers earning $100,001-300,000
-Heads of Household earning $75,001-225,00

The following will pay 25% income taxes and 20% Long Term Cap Gains/ -Dividends:
-Single filers earning $150,001+
-Married filers earning $300,001+
-Heads of Household earning $225,001+
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/tax-reform

The tax foundation's analysis finds that the plan would reduce federal revenues by $11.98 trillion over the next decade

Increase GDP by 11%

Eliminates the Net Investment Income Tax of 3.8%

The plan would lead to 6.5% higher wages and a 29% larger capital stock

The changes to the corporate income tax will reduce revenues by an additional $1.54 trillion over the next decade

However, if we account for the economic growth that the plan would produce, the plan would end up lowering revenue by $10.14 trillion over the next decade

Donald Trump’s tax plan would increase the after-tax income across all taxpayers by 10.2%

The top 1% of all taxpayers would see a 21.6% increase in after-tax income
http://taxfoundation.org/article/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Here's some immigration facts

The Department of Homeland Security and other researchers have estimated that 8 in 10 illegal immigrants are from Mexico and Latin America, so the increase in immigrants from these countries is an indication that illegal immigration has begun growing again
Immigrants are 13.3% of the nation's total population — the largest share in 105 years.
A new analysis of monthly Census Bureau data by the Center for Immigration Studies shows that the nation's immigrant population (legal and illegal) hit a record high of 42.1 million in the 2nd quarter of this year — an increase of 1.7 million since the same quarter of 2014. Growth in the immigrant population in the last year was led by a 740,000 increase in the number of Mexican immigrants

http://cis.org/Immigrant-Population-Hits-Record-Second-Quarter-2015

In 2013 California was home to about 2.67 million undocumented immigrants. Almost a quarter of the nation’s undocumented immigrants reside in California, where they make up slightly more than 6% of the state’s population
Estimates for California suggest 68% of the state’s undocumented population's Mexican-born
Estimates suggest that 13% of California’s K–12 school children have an undocumented immigrant parent
More undocumented residents (nearly 815,000) live in Los Angeles County than in any other area of the state, followed by Orange County (nearly 250,000), Santa Clara County (more than 180,000), and San Diego County (more than 170,000)
California’s labor force includes about 1.85 million undocumented immigrants—the second-highest statewide share of undocumented workers (9.4%) in the nation, after Nevada (10.2%)

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=818

Only 35% of immigrants who arrived in the US between 1985 and 1989 earned incomes above the “low-income” level in 1990. By 2008, 66% of these immigrants earned incomes above the “low-income” level.
Only 55.7% of immigrants who arrived in the US during the 1990s earned incomes above the “low-income” level in 2000. By 2030, 70.3% of these immigrants are likely to earn incomes above the “low-income” level.
In 2013, 18% of business owners in the US were foreign-born. Furthermore, 28% of “Main Street” business owners—those who bring businesses like grocery stores, restaurants, and clothing stores to neighborhoods—were foreign-born.
Immigrants continue to be nearly twice as likely as the native-born to become entrepreneurs, with the rate of new entrepreneurs being 0.52% for immigrants, compared to 0.27% for the native-born.

http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/special-reports/addressing-common-questions-on-immigration

About 28% of that total was immigrants here illegally, according to the Pew report

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/us/immigrant-population-shows-signs-of-growth-estimates-show.html?_r=0

Illegal immigrants represented 16.8% of drug trafficking cases, 20% of kidnapping/hostage taking, 74.1% of drug possession, 12.3% of money laundering and 12% of murder convictions

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/07/illegal-immigrants-accounted-for-nearly-37-percent-of-federal-sentences-in-fy-2014/

Unauthorized immigrants make up 5.1% of the US labor force. In the US labor force, there was 8.1 million unauthorized immigrants either working or looking for work in 2012. Among the states, Nevada (10%), California (9%), Texas (9%) and New Jersey (8%) had the highest shares of unauthorized immigrants in their labor forces.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/19/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/

These states make up most of where illegal immigrants are living: California 25%, Texas 16%, All the other states are in single digits
In 2000 there were 1.09 million illegal immigrants living in Texas, in 2012 it was 1.83 million illegal immigrants living in Texas which is an increase of nearly 68% in the number of illegal immigrants living in Texas
40% of Brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons are illegal immigrants
37% of Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers and tapers are illegal immigrants

http://immigration.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000845

Monday, March 14, 2016

Washington BC has lowest rate of gun ownership, but highest gun murder rate

District of Columbia
Gun ownership rate                           3.6%
Gun murders per 100,000              16.5%

Vermont
Gun ownership rate                           42%
Gun murders per 100,000                0.3%

Iowa
Gun ownership rate                           42.9%
Gun murders per 100,000                0.7%

South Dakota
Gun ownership rate                           56.6%
Gun murders per 100,000                1%

Wisconsin
Gun ownership rate                           44.4%
Gun murders per 100,000                1.7%

Wyoming
Gun ownership rate                           59.7%
Gun murders per 100,000                0.9%

Oregon
Gun ownership rate                           39.8%
Gun murders per 100,000                0.9%

North Dakota
Gun ownership rate                           50.7%
Gun murders per 100,000                0.6%

Utah
Gun ownership rate                           43.9%
Gun murders per 100,000                0.8%

http://demographicdata.org/facts-and-figures/gun-ownership-statistics/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state

US has a $649.6 billion trade deficit with these countries

China
US export: $123.7 billion
US import: $466.8 billion
Trade deficit: -$343.1 billion

Germany
US exports: $49.4 billion
US imports: $123.3 billion
Trade deficit: -$73.9 billion

Mexico
US export: $240.2 billion
US import: $294.1 billion
Trade deficit: -$53.9 billion

Canada
US exports: $312.4 billion
US imports: $347.8 billion
Trade deficit: -$35.4 billion

Saudi Arabia
US exports: $18.7 billion
US imports: $47 billion
Trade deficit: -$28.3 billion
Italy
US exports: $17 billion
US imports: $42.1 billion
Trade deficit: -$25.1 billion

India
US exports: $21.6 billion
US imports: $45.2 billion
Trade deficit: -$23.6 billion

France
US exports: $31.3 billion
US imports: $46.9 billion
Trade deficit: -$15.6 billion

Russia
US exports: $10.8 billion
US imports: $23.7 billion
Trade deficit: -$12.9 billion

Iraq
US exports: $2.1 billion
US imports: $13.8 billion
Trade deficit: -$11.7 billion

Indonesia
US exports: $8.3 billion
US imports: $19.4 billion
Trade deficit: -$11.1 billion

Switzerland
US exports: $22.2 billion
US imports: $31.2 billion
Trade deficit: -$9 billion

Sweden
US exports: $4.3 billion
US imports: $10.3 billion
Trade deficit: -$6 billion

https://www.census.gov/popclock/world

Analysing 1921 Canadian federal election

What if 1912 US presidential election had pr w/ 10% threshold

Sunday, February 21, 2016

India's population will exceed's China's within the middle of this century

China
population 2015: 1.4 billion
population 2050: 1.3 billion
change: -7.14%

India
population 2015: 1.3 billion
population 2050: 1.7 billion
change: +30.77%

Germany
population 2015: 80.7 million
population 2050: 71.5 million
change: -11.4%

Russia
population 2015: 142.4 million
population 2050: 129.9 million
change: -8.78%

Greece
population 2015: 10.8 million
population 2050: 10 million
change: -7.41%

Egypt
population 2015: 90.1 million
population 2050: 137.9 million
change: +52.16%

Cuba
population 2015: 11 million
population 2050: 9.2 million
change: -16.36%

Saudi Arabia
population 2015: 28.2 million
population 2050: 40.3 million
change: +42.91%

Syria
population 2015: 17.2 million
population 2050: 31.2 million
change: +44.87%