Friday, August 24, 2018

UPCOMING QUEBEC ELECTION IS HISTORIC

Both of Quebec's main parties: the Liberals and the PQ are both polling at all time lows in support when it comes to the popular vote and this could be the first time the CAQ forms government in Quebec.


Liberals headed for all time low
The worst the Liberals ever did in the popular vote wasn't that far back in 2012, when they got just over 31%. Right now I'm predicting the Liberals will get a little bit less than 30%


PQ headed for all time low too
The PQ's worst showing in the popular vote was way back during the party's first election in 1970, when they got 23%, right now I predict that they'll get at around 17-18%. If they end up being 3rd, it'll be the first time this has happened to them since 2007 when their coke snorting leader caused a 3 close, 3 way race. If they end up being 4th(which has a decent chance of happening) that'll be the first time it's happened to them in their entire party's history!


CAQ could form their first government
The CAQ has always had chances of forming the government, but always ended up coming close or falling apart(take 2007 vs 2008 and massive leads in 2012 and ending up a close 3rd). This is also gonna be the first time since 1966 that Quebec will be voting for a conservative/center right government.


QS could end up with historic high support and maybe being in 3rd place
The QS has always increased their support by 2% in each election and gained 1 seat per election usually, so if they get anymore support than what they have now(which is certain to happen) it'll be historic for them
1%-----2003
4%-----2007
4%-----2008
6%-----2012
8%-----2014
11%----2018(prediction)

Trudeau and Scheer still neck and neck

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1023051625777295360/photo/1
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/735a1317-46c5-4f9e-8cee-add477f2abfaSaudi%20Arabia%20August%2014%202018.pdf
http://abacusdata.ca/2019-race-may-feature-many-issues-from-climate-change-debt-housing-to-borders-and-gun-violence-and-always-trump/

CAQ AND Liberal support rise in Quebec, PQ down since yesterday


Tuesday, August 21, 2018

GOP have a decent chance of getting as many as they did in 2012, more Democrat Senate seats change from solid to likely

The GOP has a good chance of holding or gaining seats in Minnesota, as well as hold onto more seats they have in New York than expected. Slowly, but surely, there's gonna be less swing seats as we get closer to election day, so that means the Democrats' floor when it comes to seats is at least 190.


If every seat that's won by less than 1% goes to the GOP, they'll hold onto their majority and barely lose any.


As for the Senate, it appears that New Jersey and Pennsylvania are becoming potential likely or competitive seats, but it's likely that Democrats will hold onto their seats, but by more narrow margins than expected.    

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Missouri has changed from lean Democrat to lean GOP


Just like I said yesterday, the GOP's pathway to holding onto the House is to hold onto as many seats they have in California, New York and the rustbelt, they also need to gain some seats in Minnesota.

Polls in Missouri have shown McCaskill and Hawley polling around 47% each and that means based on my opinion, Missouri is leaning republican now.  


Saturday, August 18, 2018

GOP HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO HOLD ONTO HOUSE AND SENATE

Despite 538 giving democrats a 68-75% chance of winning the house and thecrosstab giving democrats a 76% of winning back the house, there's a lot of seats the GOP trails by less than 1% in that if they hold onto all or most of those, they can retain their majority. Although it'll be kind of like 2012 where the democrats won the popular vote, but the GOP held onto their majority. What's likely to happen is that right now Democrats lead the generic ballot by about 7-8%, but as the election comes closer, it'll likely shrink to 5 or maybe 4% and on election day, Democrats will win the popular vote, but only by 2-3% and the GOP will likely get around 220 something seats.


If the Democrats' lead in the generic ballot is more than 10% a week or 2 before election day, Democrats will be very likely to win back the House so the GOP has the make sure they only trail by 10% or less constantly.


The GOP will lose both House and a Senate seat in Arizona, they'll also lose some seats in California and New York and to make up for those losses, they need to gain a few seats in Minnesota and hold onto ones in the rustbelt states.


As for the Senate, the only way for Democrats to win is to gain Arizona(which they're gonna do), Nevada and gain a seat that's likely to be GOP such as Tennessee and Texas. (this is assuming the GOP wins a or more of the following seats:
-Missouri
-Indiana
-Florida
-Montana
-West Virginia
-North Dakota)


The GOP will hold onto the Senate, but instead of gaining half a dozen seats from the Democrats (there's 25 democrats up for re election and only 8 GOP up for re election), they'll likely gain 1-2 seats and maybe 3.


So there you go, the GOP has a good chance of the narrowly holding onto the House and holding onto the Senate and gain 1-2 seats.

Monday, August 13, 2018

Report: 5.7 Million ‘Noncitizens’ Voted In 2008

CHATHAM, NJ (The Washington Times) – A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at post election polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in US elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.



As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.



The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every 2 years questions a sample size of 10s of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they're noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.



Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.


In one camp, there's groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.


http://www.illegalaliencrimereport.com/uncategorized/report-5-7-million-noncitizens-voted-in-2008/


https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/19/noncitizen-illegal-vote-number-higher-than-estimat/

59% of americans support trump's supreme court pic Brett Kavanaugh

1,446 414
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/nation-world/what-do-you-think-of-president-trumps-pick-for-the-supreme-court
 
1,246 374
https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/07/do_you_approve_of_trumps_supreme_court_pick.html
22,758 16,437
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1016523004602474496?lang=en
 
1,193 863
https://www.wkrn.com/news/political-news/poll-is-brett-kavanaugh-the-best-choice-for-supreme-court-/1292585471
 
956 639
https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/opinions/polls/do-you-favor-the-nomination-of-brett-kavanaugh-to-u/poll_064cabbe-7d2b-5cf4-8ab0-9e15562a0915.html