GOP HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO HOLD ONTO HOUSE AND SENATE

Despite 538 giving democrats a 68-75% chance of winning the house and thecrosstab giving democrats a 76% of winning back the house, there's a lot of seats the GOP trails by less than 1% in that if they hold onto all or most of those, they can retain their majority. Although it'll be kind of like 2012 where the democrats won the popular vote, but the GOP held onto their majority. What's likely to happen is that right now Democrats lead the generic ballot by about 7-8%, but as the election comes closer, it'll likely shrink to 5 or maybe 4% and on election day, Democrats will win the popular vote, but only by 2-3% and the GOP will likely get around 220 something seats.


If the Democrats' lead in the generic ballot is more than 10% a week or 2 before election day, Democrats will be very likely to win back the House so the GOP has the make sure they only trail by 10% or less constantly.


The GOP will lose both House and a Senate seat in Arizona, they'll also lose some seats in California and New York and to make up for those losses, they need to gain a few seats in Minnesota and hold onto ones in the rustbelt states.


As for the Senate, the only way for Democrats to win is to gain Arizona(which they're gonna do), Nevada and gain a seat that's likely to be GOP such as Tennessee and Texas. (this is assuming the GOP wins a or more of the following seats:
-Missouri
-Indiana
-Florida
-Montana
-West Virginia
-North Dakota)


The GOP will hold onto the Senate, but instead of gaining half a dozen seats from the Democrats (there's 25 democrats up for re election and only 8 GOP up for re election), they'll likely gain 1-2 seats and maybe 3.


So there you go, the GOP has a good chance of the narrowly holding onto the House and holding onto the Senate and gain 1-2 seats.